Scott Cullen

9/24/2006 2:12:22 PM

While the early round picks are the glamourous names, often the difference-makers in your draft will come from the players that have breakout seasons.  Not only that, but being ahead of the curve on these players makes it all the more rewarding when they turn into major components of your team.

There are three separate categories we'll cover as we look for candidates to break on through to the other side.

The first will be players that have had some NHL success in limited play. The question then becomes whether or not they can continue to produce over a full season.

The leader in this group is Colby Armstrong.  A first-round pick out of the Western Hockey League, Armstrong spent more than three seasons in the AHL, leading to speculation that he might be a flop.  However, the agitator earned a promotion last year, landed on Sidney Crosby's wing and produced 40 points in 47 games.  Add in a plus-15 rating and 58 penalty minutes and Armstrong would project to being a fantasy stud this year as long as he stays close to Sid the Kid.

A first-round pick of the Sharks in 2003, Steve Bernier made an impact with the Sharks when he got called up midway through the 2005-2006 season.  Installed on a line with Patrick Marleau and Milan Michalek, Bernier notched 14 goals and 27 points in 39 games.  A power forward with great hands in tight, he could be a 30-goal scorer in his second pro season.

Ryan Craig's past suggested that he was a grinding forward when he got his chance with the Lightning last year, but the blue-collar player proved to have a knack around the net as well, notching six power play goals on his way to putting up 28 points in 48 games.  With the Lightning in need of complementary scorers, Craig should get his chances this year and could be good for 40-50 points.

While the Philadelphia Flyers were busy signing behemoth defencemen, one of last year's call-ups showed very well despite being undersized.  Freddy Meyer is only listed at 5-foot-10 and 192 pounds, but the B.U. grad stepped in and produced 27 points (16 on the power play) in 57 games.  He'll get power play time in Philly and might be able to get in the neighbourhood of 40 points over a full season.

The recent signing of Dan Hamhuis doesn't help his value any, but Nashville's Shea Weber is a star in waiting.  He struggled in his first games with the Predators, putting up one points and a minus-3 rating in six games, but he was excellent after the All-Star game, scoring nine points, recording a plus-11 rating and adding 38 penalty minutes.  In a full season, Weber may only be a 30-35 point defenceman, but if he adds in 100-plus penalty minutes and a strong plus-minus, that makes him pretty valuable overall. 

Another defenceman that performed very well in his partial first season was Detroit's Niklas Kronwall.  Sidedlined by a knee injury suffered late in camp, Kronwall got into 27 games at the end of the season, recording nine points and a plus-11 rating and 28 penalty minutes.  Expect him to play a more prominent role this year, which means he could be capable of 40 points with a plus-20 and 90 penalty minutes.

Already with a Stanley Cup under his belt (a great place to put it, by the way), Carolina's Andrew Ladd could be ready for a jump, in part because Cory Stillman's injury will open up more playing time on a scoring line for the young winger.  While Ladd wasn't a prolific junior scorer, tallying 120 points in 137 games with Calgary in the WHL, he's shown more of a knack as a pro, scoring 11 goals and 19 points in 25 AHL games last year, then six goals and 11 points in 29 games with the Hurricanes.  If he plays on a quality line in Carolina, the No. 4 pick from the 2004 draft could be a 20-goal man this year. 

In Chris Higgins' case, he played 80 games as a rookie last year, scoring 38 points, but didn't warrant fantasy consideration until getting placed on a line with Michael Ryder and Saku Koivu and finished the season on a tear, scoring 16 goals and 22 points in the final 26 games.  Higgins might never score at that pace again, but he could be a 25-goal, 50-point performer.

Though his rookie season was generally considered a disappointment, Thomas Vanek still managed 48 points and he's considered a premier scoring prospect.  With his pedigree, the fifth overall pick from the 2003 draft should be better in his second season.

Derek Roy had a productive 46-point season last year, then turned it up with 15 points in 18 playoff games.  If he can keep up that scoring, he'll be an integral part of the Sabres offence.

Somewhat overlooked on Buffalo's deep forward corps last year, Jason Pominville stepped to the forefront by scoring the series-winning goal against Ottawa in the playoffs.  The Quebec junior league sniper scored half of his 30 points (in 57 games) on the power play and, with a few off-season departures, only figures to get more quality ice time in Buffalo.

Ottawa's first-round pick in 2003, Patrick Eaves buried 20 goals in 53 games as a rookie, showing enough skill that he could get a shot on the Senators' top line this season, joining Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley.  With those prime linemates, Eaves could have a monster season.

The second group of breakout candidates to look at will be those who have perhaps been in the league for a few more years (though not exclusively) but, more importantly, are going to be in expanded roles perhaps with better linemates this season.

In Vancouver, there are a pair of wingers that fit this mold.  Matt Cooke has proven to be more aggravating than anything else in his first six NHL seasons, but it's not like he hasn't shown some offensive ability.  In 2002-2003, he produced 15 goals and 42 points, and a careeer season is a distinct possibility if he ends up on a line with Brendan Morrison and Markus Naslund.

Jan Bulis spent most of his time in Montreal in a checking role, but was able to chip in offensively as well, scoring a career-high 20 goals and 40 points last year.  Projected to join the Sedin twins, a spot that worked awfully well for Anson Carter last year, Bulis could be primed for a further bump in production.

If neither one of these players can get the job done offensively, don't be surprised if Ryan Kesler gets a chance to earn his newfound wealth by playing in more offensive situations in his second season.

Toronto's Kyle Wellwood is about as sportsmanlike as they come, never registering more than 20 penalty minutes in any of his three pro seasons, but that doesn't diminish the skill level he displays.  A real talent with the puck, Wellwood tallied 22 of his 45 points with the man advantage last year.  Given the right linemates, perhaps even a spot on Mats Sundin's wing, Wellwood should continue to blossom as an offensive performer in the new NHL.

Perhaps no other single player is expected to benefit from an off-season trade like Mark Bell, who lands with Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo in San Jose after languishing with lesser linemates in Chicago.  Bell has had his moments, but consistency has been elusive in his four-plus NHL campaigns.  He produced a career-best 48 points last year, but should be far more effective if he's playing with the reigning Art Ross and Rocket Richard trophy winners.

Few, if any, teams had a pair of rookies last year as highly touted as Philadelphia's Jeff Carter and Mike Richards.  Carter is the one with greater offensive upside and his production did improve throughout the season.  After scoring a respectable 42 points as a rookie, Carter should be ready to jump up as an offensive performer in his second season.

Burgeoning power forward Nathan Horton has made solid progress through two NHL seasons, though injuries have cost him 38 games over two years.  If he can stay healthy, and ends up on a line with Olli Jokinen and Todd Bertuzzi, the third overall pick in 2003 could be ready for stardom.

When Edmonton traded defensive stalward Chris Pronger to Anaheim in the off-season, and didn't get a proven defenceman in return, that left a job vacancy on the point of the Oilers' power play.  Enter Marc-Andre Bergeron, a skilled blueliner that has improved steadily since getting signed by the Oilers in 2001.  Bergeron put up 35 points last year and only managed eight assists on the power play (to match his eight power play goals).  Simply by adding more assists in his increased power play time, Bergeron should be a breakthrough performer.

The third group of breakout performers would be the darkhorse candidates, longshots that have shown some potential to indicate that they could be productive.

Leading off this group will be a pair of Russians returning to North America.  Washington's Alexander Semin had 22 points in 52 games as a rookie in 2003-2004 before spending a couple years in Russia.  His 2005-2006 season was tumultuous, and not nearly as productive as the previous season, but Semin remains an offensive talent.  In Washington, skilled forwards are in short supply, so Semin could become a valuable contributor.

Anaheim's Stanislav Chistov scored 30 points as a rookie in 2002-2003, but struggled before returning to Russia last year.  As a small, speedy winger, Chistov would figure to be a good fit in the new NHL.  Now it's a matter of whether or not he can earn quality ice time with the Ducks.

Carolina's defence is going to miss Frantisek Kaberle in the first half of the season, but the veteran's absence could create an opportunity for Anton Babchuk.  Acquired from the Blackhawks last year, Babchuk is a hard-shooting blueliner who scored seven of his ten points last year on the power play. Expecting huge production would be unfair, but Babchuk could be a contributor.

Los Angeles went after Alyn McCauley early in free agency, and probably not because he scored 26 points last season. Of course, McCauley is a valuable two-way centre, but he scored 47 points with San Jose in 2003-2004 and could respond to more ice time in SoCal this year.

What list of darkhorse candidates would be complete without Eric Lindros?  A ridiculous string of injuries has limited his effectiveness and, while he's no longer a point-per-game performer, the Big E had 22 points in 32 games with Toronto last year and can put up points and penalty minutes, if healthy.  That's one of the biggest "ifs" in hockey.

In Calgary, the arrival of Alex Tanguay has the Flames thinking more offensively, but they still need production down the middle, which leaves Matthew Lombardi and, potentially, Jamie Lundmark.  Health has been an issue for Lombardi early in his career, but he's also a good skater with some offensive skills.  If he ends up with Tanguay and Jarome Iginla, that's an ideal spot for a breakout season.  Lundmark doesn't have the same kind of upside however, after ten points in 12 games in Calgary last year, he's worth keeping an eye on.

If you're not inclined to take young guys on the upswing with your longshots, how about a couple of greybeards looking for rejuvenation in the desert?  Owen Nolan took last season off, following a year off for the lockout, so he better be well-rested at this point.  He's still only 34, though, and goal-scorer who can put up PIMs too. 

Nolan's teammate, Jeremy Roenick, also endured a horrible 2005-2006 season scoring just 22 points, so it's possible that the 36 year-old has lost it.  On the other hand, the Coyotes are planning on giving him an opportunity to regain some of his past glory and no one seeks glory quite like JR.  He should be better in 2006-2007.  If he's not, remember that he was a longshot selection anyway.

Scott Cullen can be reached at scullen@tsn.ca